SKU: 44923149033

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don'tUPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012

UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER

"One of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Binding Type: Paperback
Publisher: Penguin Books
Published: 02/03/2015
ISBN: 9780143125082
Pages: 576
Weight: 1.00lbs
Size: 8.30h x 5.40w x 1.10d

Review Citations: New York Times Book Review 03/01/2015 pg. 28
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SKU: 44923149033

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Nice looking. Not very sturdy. Easy to install.
Size: 40x7 2Pcs, Color: White, Size: 40x7 2Pcs, Color: White
Update: The shelf slopes at about a 45° angle when you put anything more than about a pound on the outside edge of it. Perfectly fine up against the wall. Just seems like the braces inside aren't long enough to really give the stability needed. Bracket is nice and tight against the wall. Had to add braces underneath to hold a small plant, a photo and a small container. Wa sloping more and more each week The shelves look great and we're pretty easy to install. They have a single bracket that is very easy to mount to the wall and get nice and level.. The downside is that the bracket isn't long enough to go between studs. This seems like a pretty simple oversight. I mean why wouldn't you make it long enough to go stud to stud? Secondly and maybe more fatally the bars that go inside the shelf to support them coming out from the wall are significantly shorter than the depth of the shelf. Unfortunately this means the shelf is only supported the first few inches coming out from the wall so there is the potential for a slight lean forward.. The anchors they send are trash. Cheap soft plastic that just tears and bends with a screwdriver. I would suggest spending $2 and grabbing your own anchors from Ace or home Depot. The shelves are essentially made of a high grade cardboard kind of wood. They are not going to support much weight or last for years and years however there incredibly affordable and look nice and easy to install. Long as your expectations are right you'll be happy.
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Janice Amidon
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Good floating shelves. I mounted the light strip on the top instead of the bottom because they don't stick well. For the price I wish they came with a set of batteries for the pack and the remote. But over all sturdy and well made.
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I recently purchased a set of floating shelves, and I couldn't be happier with my decision! From the moment I opened the box, I was impressed by the quality of the materials. The shelves are sturdy and well-crafted, giving me confidence that they will hold my books and decorative items without any issues. Installation was a breeze! The package came with clear instructions and all the necessary hardware, making the process quick and hassle-free. I was able to mount them in no time, and I appreciated how everything lined up perfectly. As for the aesthetics, these shelves are a game changer for my space! They add a modern touch to my room and provide a stylish way to display my favorite pieces. The sleek design complements my décor beautifully, and I've received so many compliments from friends and family. Overall, these floating shelves exceeded my expectations in every way. They are not only functional but also enhance the look of my home. I highly recommend them to anyone looking for a stylish and easy-to-install shelving solution!
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